On the first day of the week, we see as the greenback advanced to senior positions majors after increasing political tensions between the U.S. and China. Recall that a few days ago, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao defended the valuation of the Yuan and stressed that the stability of its currency is a key factor contributing to the recovery of the global economy. Across the ocean, the U.S. president, Barack Obama, has expressed discomfort over the valuation of currency, informing that the renminbi rises weaken the competitiveness of the dollar in international trade, benefiting the export sector of the giant Asia. However, the greenback’s gains were tempered by concerns about the U.S. rating, after learning about an article in the newspaper “Financial Times” that Moody’s would be to announce a cut in its credit rating unless consolidate public finances more than expected by the Obama administration.
Among other things, gave sterling positions against the euro, the dollar and yen on prospects of a weakening of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and after increasing fiscal risks in the UK.
At the macroeconomic level, we learned that the housing price index from Rightmove UK stood at 5.3% annualized rate, while in the month was 0.1%. Although keep in positive territory, the data was below the results of the previous month. In Japan, February Consumer confidence has been better than estimated, while in the Eurozone, the Employment Exchange recorded a contraction of 1.8% in the last quarter of 2009, reflecting a recovery of 0.3% Compared to the previous quarter.
For the next few hours, the eyes will be on the Empire manufacturing index for New York Estate and Net TIC Flows and Industrial Production in the U.S., while in Canada, the highlight will be the sale of new vehicles in January.
In stock level, the main indicators of the Asian region closed lower on the day today at the prospect that China will adjust its monetary policy to cool the economy. In Europe, the selective operating in the old red continent disclosed that Moody’s may cut credit rating to the U.S. and UK. On Wall Street U.S. futures predict a session start to fall.
With regard to raw materials, a barrel of West Texas Oil (WTI) traded at 80.92 dollars in the Chamber of Commerce of New York (NYMEX). Since the beginning of session, the black gold is depreciated 0.8% so far, recording a session low at 80.45 dollars. Mindful that at the moment, oil is consolidated in 50% of the short movement carried out between 81.21 and 80.45, an area that in the case of overcoming it would boost the commodity to the target of 81.00 dollars. A low, considering the support is at 80.80 dollars.
Levels and key trends:
EUR / USD (euro / dollar): On Friday, finished the week trying to break the downtrend drawn from the best December in daily chart. You are now holding and will be key to see a larger correction. The objective for operators will look for 1.40 euro, 50 of the bearish movement fibo 2010. A downward wave will make a new bassist after a month in a period of consolidation. This would repeat the pattern of late 2009 and early 2010. The objective is to lower the minimum located on May 1.3213. In one hour chart, is seen as the crossing has been made a double top in 1378, and after breaking the uptrend, drawn from the floor last Wednesday, has made an attempt to lose 1.37 on the way up to 1.3631. However, time has rebounded. Upward, we must remember that 1.38 is the height of the consolidation range discussed.
USD / JPY (dollar / yen): On Friday, left a candle daily high waveform which again indicates indecision. The roof was the 200-day Moving Averages on daily chart so if you try again promoted, this will be the goal, to get in the coming days than February. In contrast, on the other hand, it could be forming a new smaller maximum, which could slip the torque to overcome the 61.8 fibo, traced from 84.82 until 92.76. In one hour chart, be alert to the maximum and minimum on Friday that in the case of breaking, will be clear to see what direction to take. The Bear, the first step will leave a new intraday low, which may be the trigger for the slide to 90,174, before the barrier of 90. Soaring, the war and continue to give 90.70 consolidate its breakage will be essential to keep thinking about long. If successful, the shutdown may be 91,436 upward.
GBP / USD (Pound against the dollar): On Friday, the pair recorded a new monthly maximum dilation of the movement. However, the 1.5205 is still standing until it is consolidated shatter. In the European morning has made a pullback on the level being discussed breaking the uptrend in place since last Wednesday. That is, continuing the downtrend drawn from the annual maximum. One must add, that the trend can be commented that dictates when you can start the new wave bass. In figure one hour, at this moment trying rebound from 1502, last stand before the barrier of 1.5. Once passed, 1.4948 is the most interesting floor before the minimum last week. Upward again pass the MM 200 days in one hour will be the first step to break the zone on 1.51.
XAU / USD (ounce of gold against the dollar): The yellow metal is trying to bounce after bounce Friday on the 1100. In 4 hours chart can be seen as the gold is in a bearish channel. In case of breaking the barrier of 1100, gold could slide to the $ 1085 per ounce. The Bull, the focus is on breaking the trend short commentary. The first step will be placed on the 1107, strong resistance today. Furthermore, 1119 will make the roof in case of puncturing the channel said. Finally, long-term loss to 1100, could leave the minimum annual target.
Opportunities of the day:
EUR / GBP (Euro against the pound): The pound has made a strong move higher after the polls continue to give no clear winner for the next election. The Bull, the main focus is on 0.9134, up from last week. In case of making a strong move, the 0915 remains the standard to beat is to leave the door open to a great wave until 0924. A lower, the maximum of the last week is a good place to form a double floor. The objective of the alternative strategy is losing 0.91, which would leave an option to back the motion in the morning.
USD / CAD (Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar): The pair left on Friday a new annual minimum and also broke ground 2009. As we have been discussing for some time, was the last support before getting to reach parity in the exchange rate. The key level before reaching parity can be in the 1.0155, annual soil. Moreover, before proceeding, could return for a pullback on 1.0208. In one hour chart, as can be seen during the day has come to go back to the 23.6 fibo of the short stroke last week. It should be reviewing the 38.2% fibo between 1.0208/24. Finally, adding that the road to parity is not direct and for this we must add the pivot points as possible carriers (1.0147/02 and 1.0051)