Pound and Euro await interest rate decision

March 4th, 2010 by Benton Pena View Comments »

The Forex market offers excellent business opportunities to the publication of a battery of macroeconomic data that we know today in Europe and America. Among them stand the decision on interest rates from the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE). Also, in the U.S., the most important data will be non-farm productivity, factory orders and initial unemployment Petitions February. So far, we have known that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Quarterly Euro Zone has grown at a slower pace in the fourth quarter of 2009 while the annualized rate in the old continent’s economy experienced a contraction at a lower rate , to settle at 2.1%, when the previous figure was 4.0%.
With regard to yesterday, has released the Beige Book Federal Reserve (FED). According to the Central Bank, the economic situation continued to improve in U.S. in January-February, but weakly. It also stressed that the activity was increased in nine of 12 regions of the country, albeit slowly. Meanwhile, we have also known that Australia’s trade balance has exceeded expectations, recording a deficit of 1.18 billion Australian dollars in January, while in December, was -2.2 billion. Without a doubt, is a factor which again confirms the recovery of the Australian economy.

In stock level, the uncertainty surrounding whether the measures published in Greece to cut the fiscal deficit will be sufficient Asia have weakened the flooring, which closed in the day with losses of close to 2%. In Europe, the old continent selective spread of the closing night and also operate in the red, like the future of the main indicators of Wall Street.

With regard to raw materials, despite the bad data in weekly petroleum inventories in the United States negotiated the black gold has picked up a barrel of West Texas (WTI) at 80.52 dollars on the New York Mercantile Chamber (NYMEX ). Since logging, oil is seen 0.4%, recording a daily maximum of 80.95 dollars. For the remainder of the session, investors believe that the raw material increase in risk aversion, the commodity could perform an intraday pullback to the support located at 79.90 dollars.

Finally, the Dollar Index (DXY) continues the trend started long days ago, currently operating at 80.05 points. Since the beginning of session, this indicator can be seen slightly, registering a peak in the day in 80.30 and a minimum at 79.94 points. Mindful that if the data of initial requests for unemployment exceeding expectations, DXY’s first reaction might be that of a pickup.

Levels and key trends:

EUR / USD (euro / dollar): The euro managed to exceed 1.37, however withstood very little about these environments. Therefore, it is now below 1.37 to receive interest rates in Europe. In the European morning, has found support at 1.3634, that if he keeps putting up, it could push the pair to find the 1.38. Along the way it should be stressed as much yesterday and 1378, resistance to mid-February. Furthermore, the rupture zone may be at 1.3692, the same as yesterday. The Bear, the key will be about 1.36, since their loss to slide the new minimum price for the year. In this area we should highlight the 1.3474/43/36, where his drill could reach 1.3424, good support from April 2009.
USD / JPY (dollar / yen): The pair has again made a bearish movement. At this moment is trying to break the 61.8% fibo, traced from 84.82 until 93.76. Your piercing will leave a short pattern, which could find the start of motion in 84.82. However, there are the daily chart two supports are significant as 87.37 and the minimum 86,257 in December. In one hour chart, is seen as the pair has slowed in the 88,145 and will aim to break the downtrend that has formed in the beginning of the month. If the breaks, be the first sign to think about a possible move higher. The most significant support for this week are 88,629, before reaching 89. In the European morning, the trend line has endured and could be the start of a bearish movement. Therefore, the minimum yield should be highlighted in an hour’s sail 87.74/528.

GBP / USD (pound against the dollar): The pound yesterday closed an up day after he formed a good support at 1.4977 to push up to 1.5134. In the European morning was found with the upward trend that has been in force since the monthly minimum. The soil is said to beat the goal should increase the asset purchase program in the United Kingdom. Upwards, the crossing after enduring trend and the level of 1.50, will an option to attack 1.52, weekly maximum. A strong upward move could recover the 1.5296, which would be key for the next few days. A lower, losing 1.50 barrier will take the pair to seek 1.4852, dual-zone soil. Along the way it should be noted such as the intraday levels 1.4977/40, who will try to give a price break. A strong bearish movement must comment on 1.4754, least May 2009, which would free fall to the 1.4518.

XAU / USD (ounce of gold against the dollar): The price of the yellow metal was stopped yesterday at the previous target located at $ 1032 per ounce, but we must observe if he can beat that level of control in settings of 1040/1045. Yesterday, the price could not deal and see if the strong hands are removed from that level to reach that goal commented days ago, located at 1179 U.S. dollars. That level is the maximum wave of resistance that pierced the 16 February and by the way the first level objective would be at $ 1158 per ounce. It is logical and necessary that the price has to go back to achieve maximum target so you have to be attentive to the rupture of immediate support

Opportunities of the day:
NZD / USD (New Zealand dollar against the U.S. dollar): The pair closed yesterday down one day and every day more points to reach the minimum in February. The market has ceased since the maximum yearly max 3 children that indicate that the trend is short. The first step upward, breaking the 1.07 is where it lies lower than the last with the tide. A low, we must stress the September minimum located at 0.6685. Finally, in this daily chart if the 50-day Moving Averages 200 days crossing a new sign will be short. In one hour chart, we see that the first resistance is located at 0.69, support yesterday, and once there you can go for the 0.6958 close to the 200-day moving averages in one hour. The alternative scenario suggests that 0.6848 is a support that must be taken into account should fall to those environments

EUR / GBP (pound against the pound): Observing the one hour chart, it looks like the market is waiting to decisions of interest rates in the UK and Europe. Furthermore, it has formed a triangular-shaped figure that is likely to break today. The Bull, once in the 0.9084, attempt to break the resistance of 0.91 for the maximum weekly in 0915. A low, losing 0.9053, an attempt will be up to 0.90. Along the way we should highlight the 0904 and 0.9026. Looking at the daily chart, the possibility exists that after the last pulse seek a correction. Otherwise, you must try to overcome the 0.9015, maximum in November and December.

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