On the first day of the week, the foreign exchange market continued digesting the surprising results of the unemployment rate in America. Remember that last Friday, the Labor Department reported that the rate stood at 9.7% in February, while nonfarm payroll employment (payrolls) have been considerably worse, placing 36,000 posts work destroyed in the previous month. However, the news has injected optimism into the market, after increasing the prospects for American country’s recovery.
For the day today, no relevant data to be known in America, the eyes will be on the Canadian housing starts. So far, we have learned that the Swiss unemployment rate stood at 4.4%, a cut of 0.1% over the January figure, while the adjusted retail sales to Switzerland have exceeded expectations, to settle at 4.4% in January, when it was estimated that the figure would be 2.4%. Finally, in Germany, the January industrial production has experienced a significant recovery in the annualized rate, registering a surge of 2.2% in the first month of 2010, when in December, that industry experienced a contraction of 7 1%.
Moreover, the market is waiting to announcements made by the Bank of China to warn a tightening in monetary policy. Recall that the Central Bank has decided in 2008 to fix the exchange rate in 6.83 yen to promote exports. “This strategy is part of our special package for the global financial crisis. Sooner or later end up with these special measures, “said its chairman Zhou Xiaochuan.
Among other things, the euro has received positive comments from French President Nicolas Sarkozy, saying that Greece maintains the full support of the Euro Zone. Importantly, the Hellenic government is committed to reducing its deficit by 4 points by the end of 2010 through the freezing of pensions and wage cuts for civil servants, there are no measures in the public liked.
In stock level, indicators of the Asian region closed the day higher, after learning about the good data from the unemployment rate in America. In Europe, the old continent selective spread of the evening session, while in the U.S., Wall Street futures predict a start this week with gains.
With regard to raw materials, a barrel of West Texas oil makes a pullback, trading at this time to 81.95 dollars in the Chamber of Commerce of New York (NYMEX). Since the beginning of session, the black gold recorded a daily maximum in 82.40 (double top and rebound potential area bassist) and a minimum at 81.75 dollars. For the rest of the day, investors believe crude could go in search of 81.35, a level which coincides with the MM 200 days, and then rebound to the pivot point of 82.22 dollars a barrel.
Levels and key trends:
EUR / USD (euro / dollar): On Friday, the euro ended upward rebound from 1.3528 dollars per euro. In the European morning, the couple has tried to place on the barrier of 1.37. If he succeeds, he will meet the maximum at 1.3737 last week, will try to stand so that the crossing was not as close to 1.38. 1.38 Overcoming the goal of operators in the euro to see a larger correction for the 1.40, fibo 50 of the bearish movement of 2010. A low, rising levels are discussed areas of potential rebound bassist. In that case, losing 1.3669, intraday level, slide the pair until the 1.3637 support again for the 1.36. A new strong movement of the dollar, endeavor to reach the 1.35, finding support in 1.3569/52/28, the latter being the least on Friday. For today it is hoped that the pair remains in the range of the last few weeks waiting for major events throughout the week.
USD / JPY (dollar / yen): Strong greenback movement getting to be above the 90 yen per dollar. The pair have formed a support area in 90.251/345 to try to exceed the maximum of today’s 90,696. The daily chart target is located in the 92, less than last. Otherwise, the crossing back again to look for the monthly minimum, which coincides with the 61.8 fibo, traced from 84.82 until 93.76. A low, losing 90,251, the pair slid hard, and if you lose 90, could reach 89,276, break area on Friday. Upward, we must stress the 91,104 and 91.3.
GBP / USD (pound against the dollar): The pound on Friday managed to break the 1.5132 resistance, leaving the couple looking for 1.52. In case of break, his next stop is in 1526 before reaching 1.53. Looking at the daily chart seems necessary correction to remain sustainable in the short stroke. Finally, the fibo 50, drawn from the 1.5814 to 1.4783 is located in the 1.53. A low, losing 1.5132, a new attempt will lose the barrier of 1.5 dollars per pound. Chances are, if not withstand the 1.5 to start the crossing to make a new wave bass. However, the pound operators try to form a new ground in 1.4852.
XAU / USD (ounce of gold against the dollar): The pair continues to hold above 1130, but can not be placed on the 1140/1145, where strong hands are placed on the market. Proof of this is that in recent days has tried to position himself on those environments and it has not succeeded. A low, losing the 1132, the yellow metal slide until 1123. In these environments, you will find the 200-day Moving Averages an hour.
Opportunities of the day:
USD / CAD (Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar): The Canadian dollar continues to seek new lows and points to the annual soil. Along the way may slow at 1.0248 before rising to the level discussed in 1.0224. Also, do not forget the least of the week goes on as 1.0262 level hard to beat. The Bull, once it rests over the 1.0285, 1.0308 may seek. This last level will be very important, as shown in the graph of one hour was the resistance on Friday and could make a move upward until 1.0332. Finally, the long-term trend remains bearish as seen in daily chart, though, a bullish rebound might be interesting to collect further support the loonie.
EUR / JPY (euro against the yen): The euro has found resistance at 123.9 yen per euro. The support of 122.92 will be the one to seek a sentencing or new lows. If you lose, before reaching the 122, will meet with the two break zones located in Friday’s 122.54/23. The Bull, consolidate 122.92, may leave an opportunity to seek new highs, leaving the 124. The lens is located at 124.46, however, if you make a strong move could be on their way up to 125.25. In the daily chart is seen as the pair has broken the downtrend drawn from annual maximum and 125.25 is the latest smaller maximum, which would confirm the trend change.