Completing the first quarter of 2010, we observed that the euro recovered from losses in the day yesterday following the announcement that the unemployment rate of Germany and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the Euro Zone have exceeded expectations. Among other things, the yen depreciated to the minimum of 8 weeks against the euro, at the prospect of a recovery in the U.S. labor sector, which would require less active and more foreign refuge high interest rate. So far, we have known that housing construction permits in Australia have recorded a contraction of 3.3% in February, while in Japan, the manufacturing PMI rebounded strongly to the 52.4 points, indicating a clear expansion of the steel industry . In New Zealand, kiwi depreciates against major majors, after business confidence weakened in March, due to uncertainties around the major world powers.
As mentioned earlier, Germany’s unemployment rate stood at 8%, when the previous data was 8.1%, while in the Eurozone, the CPI annual preliminary exceeded previous estimates, an increase of 1.5 % when the expected figure was 1.1%.
For the next few hours, operators expectantly await the results of the ADP Employment Change, the Chicago PMI purchasing, factory orders and inventories of oil in the U.S., while in Canada, the loonie will be key to data Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in January.
In the securities area, the equity markets in Asia ended the day down (-0.6%) after a “take profit” by the operators, after increasing concerns around economic stability Euro Zone. In Europe, operating the old continent selective upward slightly at the prospect of ADP employment data in EEU.UU, while on Wall Street, Americans anticipate a future session start with losses at the end of 1Q 2010.
With regard to raw materials, a barrel of West Texas oil (WTI) recorded a new high in two weeks, trading at 82.81 dollars on the New York Mercantile House (NYMEX). The reasons for the increases are the good results of the API in U.S. Inventories and widespread increases in commodities, benefiting the black gold to the dollar. Attentive to the upside, the key objective is the elevation of 83.00, double roof and rebound potential bearish zone, while lower, considering the support is at 82.41 dollars. In the futures market, contracts with maturity “May 2010″ have a high operational, with 19,247 contracts traded so far. At this time, slight barrel trading at 82.83 U.S. dollars (+0.4), while Call and Put Options remain unchanged so far.
Levels and key trends:
EUR / USD (euro against the dollar): The pair stopped at 1.3536 yesterday to send the price to 1.34 dollars per euro. Today he tried, after making a pullback on 1.3434, breaking the 1.34. In this area, has formed a good support for drilling 1.3435 and head highs yesterday. So far has found resistance at 1.3474. Before reaching the said goal, we must highlight the barrier of 1.35. A strong movement of the euro it could help up to the 1.3570, the roof last week. A low, we must be attentive to the 1.35 and 1.3559, points where you could turn the couple looking for 1.3435.
USD / JPY (dollar against the yen) last week made a big move upward to break the downtrend in place since June 2007. He started the week holding bracket (92,407) more important to consolidate the break. Yesterday he broke the 92.96 to meet the 93,774. If you continue with the same direction as the pair could help up to the roof of 2010 located in the 93,774. If you exceed the 94.12 is the next stop. A low, losing the 93 barrier, slide the pair to split the downtrend looking for 91,755. However, it could stop again in the 92,407.
GBP / USD (Pound against the dollar): The pound was a strong resistance at 1.5114, which slowed the upward aspirations. However, it can draw on the graph of an hour a bullish channel that for the time being respected to perfection, and sent the pair to the 61.8 fibo, drawn from 1.5832 up to 1.48. The most significant movement has broken the downtrend that was in place since the beginning of the year. Therefore, before moving higher, a pullback could do about it. A low, operators try to stop the dollar in daily chart the daily candle as a simple expansion. This will require breaking the 1.5114.
XAU / USD (ounce of gold against the dollar): The price of the yellow metal is in the target set by breaking the last resistance. This level, around the $ 1,111 is the price level of control as they once passed with some force could reach $ 1,120 an ounce. It must be extremely careful at these levels because the price may go back to rely on the immediate support located in the $ 1,104. After breaking that level would have to break the upward guideline for further decline, but the level of $ 1,100 has been tested several times to no avail. Therefore, it should be very careful with the levels of 1115 and 1102 which, if drilled and broken respectively could provide clues to the direction of the wreck
Opportunities of the day:
USD / CAD (Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar): It is hoped that the crossing will generate a significant routes during the day. In Canada, published the GDP, where expectations by improving the 1.0147 break, to work toward the monthly minimum. If the dollar is very weak during the day today, could break the ground said to get even closer to parity. Upward, we must pay attention to the ADP employment report, which could encourage speculation about a strong farm payroll figure on Friday. In this case, moving averages (MM) of 200 days at a time, where your piercing look short trend drawn from the end of March.
GBP / JPY (pound against the yen): The pair has broken resistance of 139.33, former monthly maximum. In case you keep making new highs month, could find the 143, a good place to take a break. Along the way are outstanding 141.71 and 142.04, areas in the second half of February were interesting resistances. Finally, note the 141, as a good area to be promoted again. A low, losing 141, the pair could slip towards 140.42.
AUD / USD (Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar): The pair has found a good support in the area we scored yesterday in the MM 200 days in one hour. Now, we see that the RSI is in neutral zone, so it could begin again to make new highs. The lens is located on the roof yesterday, because if it exceeds, it could steer towards 0.9252, the highest March. A low, losing the support of 0.9137, the pair slip towards 0.90. Along the way, there are the significant media located in the 0.9114 and U.S. $ 0.9064 per Australian dollar.
EUR / CHF (Euro against the French): Continue short stroke, depreciating 40 pips so far, after increasing the demand for the Swiss currency as the value of refuge. Currently, it takes 1.4283 francs to buy a euro. On the technical side, traders await a correction to the 1.4260, to enter long position in the target 1.4296. On the technical side, Bollinger bands experience a volatility of 40 pips, while the RSI of 14 journalists are in an environment of overbooking. For the next few hours, watch for announcements of a possible intervention by the SNB to weaken the franc.