The week is closing note the fiscal situation of central Greece. Earlier today, the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Jean Claude Trichet, has reconfirmed that the country which will not enter the Euro Zone and not the default suspend payments, making clear the full support of the monetary authority in the country Hellene. It is clear that the fall of Greece would question the economic sustainability of its other members, so, Trichet’s words have given a respite to the euro and equity markets.
The key is to know that in yesterday’s Greek Finance Minister Giorgos Papaconstantinou said that the country will continue to issue debt despite the high rates of government bonds in that country in the markets. At the conference yesterday, the Greek bond yields reached 7.32%, its highest ever since the adoption of the euro by Greece in 2001, because of lingering concerns about the ability of this country to pay its huge debt .
On the other hand, operators expectantly await more details of his meeting the secretary of the U.S. Treasury, Timothy Geithner, and Vice Premier Wang Qishan, the special representative of Chinese President Hu Jintao. The reason for the meeting was the weakening of the Yuan against the U.S. dollar, a situation that has caused unease in the government of Barack Obama and that severely undermines international trade in the first world economy. Recall that the government of the Asian giant has set its exchange rate at 6.82 yuan per dollar after the outbreak of the subprime lending crisis in the U.S.. For now, prospects are that China might let its currency fluctuate after the pressure exerted by the American country.
Despite the comment earlier in the meeting today, the Chinese currency has been a fresh six-month high against the greenback at 6.8239, then increase the prospects that the Bank of China may revalue its currency. It is important to note that knowing the intentions of the Central Bank, the yen has lost ground against the euro, the pound and the dollar.
As to the macroeconomic agenda, we have known that Germany’s trade balance has exceeded expectations in February, a surplus of 12.1 billion euros, while in the United Kingdom, the Index of producer prices surged input and output 10% and 5% annual rate, respectively, appreciating the sterling against its main majors. For the remainder of the session, the most relevant data will be the unemployment rate in Canada and the U.S. wholesale inventories.
In the securities area, the main indicators of the Asian region on Friday closed higher, while the floor of the old continent operates with green numbers after Trichet’s words. On Wall Street, U.S. futures predict a profit logon.
With regard to commodities, a barrel of light crude West Texas Intermediate (WTI) picks up after consolidation in 76.4% of fibo drawn between 86.35 and 85.12 dollars. Today, crude is trading at 86.13 U.S. dollars (+1%) in the House New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). For the next few hours, it is estimated that the black gold will rebound in search of a new daily maximum and then focus on the elevation of 87.00 dollars. In the futures market, trading in futures maturing ‘May 2010′ was 21,000 contracts with a strike price of 86.27 dollars. However, mindful of the timetable for “January 2011″ it rebounded 0.85 points, to trade at 89.56 dollars.
Levels and key trends:
EUR / USD (euro against the dollar): The euro has made a strong move higher during the morning after having made a good double bottom in the 1.3342. In these moments, is located above 1.34, where if you exceed the strong resistance of 1342, will be directed to the Moving Averages (MM) of 200 days in one hour. A strong movement of the euro, could find the 1.35, where it should be noted by way of 1.3475. A low, operators will try to turn the euro as late in 1342, to move towards the 1.33. Overcome and, more importantly, will consolidate the door open to exceed the annual minimum. Finally, note the pattern of the sails of the euro, which indicate very strong bullish.
USD / JPY (dollar against the yen): The pair met yesterday for 92.94 kick and do that right now is above 93.59. Strengthening this area will leave the opportunity for seeking a new upward momentum to reach the monthly maximum. However, finding a strong resistance at 94. In addition, there will be forgotten shortly before the 93.8, Level interesting days ago on 15 minute chart. A low, not to hold about 93,589, could lead the pair to the MM 200 days in 15 minutes, overcoming the pair slid to the floor today. A strong movement of the Japanese currency could plunge the pair to 93.
GBP / USD (Pound against the dollar): The pound has been found as main resistance maximum 1.5381 in March. It will not be easy to overcome, and is likely to look before a small correction. The aim will be to overcome the 1.54 to work toward the 1545. A low, losing support will be 1.5318, last place to continue thinking about a correction.
XAU / USD (ounce of gold against the dollar) price of the yellow metal is on its way toward the goal that we have been checking this week of $ 1,170 an ounce. However, it is not surprising that today make a correction before further seeking new highs. A low, now might be a completely updated look bearish if you traced the upward trend since March 26 in the 4 hour chart.
Opportunities of the day:
USD / CAD (Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar): The pair is in parity in the exchange rate yesterday after GM made 200 days of resistance. It is hoped that the crossing wait in these environments to the Canadian employment news. Should be better than expected, it is expected that the pair break the minimum toward the monthly minimum in May 2008. On the other hand, a negative outcome would make the loonie rebounded strongly from parity. The aim would be to break the GM commented. That is, placed on 1.01 can reach up to 1,013.
EUR / JPY (euro against the yen): The pair have to bounce back, yes, not from the clavicle of the figure upward as expected. He currently is above 125.2, the most important level where you will support the euro to make new highs month. The goal for today, will break the 126.18, which if successful will open up to the roof via Comments. A low, losing the support of 125.2, again will clear signs of weakness in the currency of the old continent, which could lead the search for minimum yesterday.
USD / MXN (Mexican peso against the U.S. dollars): the crossing recorded a new low since October 2008, to contribute at this time to 12.18 pesos per dollar. In the market, investors believe that the American currency could continue to appreciate against the dollar, with the objective set in the 1200 psychological support. Technically, the Parabolic SAR provides short input signals, while the RSI is oversold in an environment in the daily candle chart. However, the crossing has the prospect of continuing a trend short launched on 8 February, after registering an annual maximum in 1325 pesos per dollar. In the case of a technical rebound, resistance to consider is at 12.21 pesos per dollar.