Today will be an important day for the euro, to begin the summit of the Commission of the Euro Zone, where they expected a final decision on the ambitious plan cuts Greece, participation or not the IMF and aid to other countries danger such as Portugal and Spain. For its part, the eyes will be on Germany and its chancellor, Angela Merkel, the refusal to provide aid to Greece and to accept help from other international agencies, increasing the prospects of instability in the economic bloc. In the market, traders continue to focus on the target of 1.30-1.25 bearish in the short term if not reach agreement in the coming weeks. Among other things, observe as the pound recovers from losses in yesterday’s session, after the British Finance Minister Alistair Darling, announced the government budget for 2010. Among the initiatives to promote growth, Darling announced a special package of 2,500 million pounds for the industry, as well as investments in sectors such as digital and unemployment benefits. However, a measure that has affected the market has been the elimination of property taxes for people first entering the housing market. Finally, the highest authority in finance in the United Kingdom reiterated its commitment to halve the deficit (currently estimated to be 12.6% of GDP) for the next four years and said the debt will be in 170 billion pounds by the end of this year.
Among other things, yesterday we met during the Asian session that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from New Zealand stood at 0.4% in the monthly rate, while in the year, the New Zealand economy contracted 1.3%. As a result, the kiwi has depreciated 25 pips against the dollar at the time of posting, posting a daily minimum at 0.6994.
In today’s meeting, has been reported that February retail sales in Britain have been much higher than expected, recording a growth of 3.5% annualized rate, while in the month, the sector experienced a rise of 2.1%. As a result, sterling appreciated against the dollar 55 pips and 45 pips against the euro. The euro also advanced against the greenback positions after the president’s comments from European Central Bank (ECB), Jean Claude Trichet, the economics of the old continent. In his speech, Trichet said that it will keep credit rating BBB – as collateral until next year but increase from January 2011. It also expressed its agreement with the comments of Member States to act if necessary to safeguard economic stability in Europe. These words are taken as positive in the market, increasing optimism about stability in the economic bloc.
For the next few hours, the focus will be on the testimony of the president of the Federal Reserve (FED) Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary U.S., Timothy Geithner, on the U.S. economy and possible reform of the financial system. Also, in the U.S., will be key in the performance of the greenback initial requests for unemployment. In New Zealand, the most relevant will be the February trade balance, while in Australia, the eyes will be on the conference to make the Australian Central Bank President (RBA) Glenn Stevens.
In stock level, the selective in the Asian region closed the day with mixed numbers, to the uncertainty regarding the economic situation in the Euro Zone and the poor performance of some Chinese companies reported profit below expectations. In Europe, the floor of the old continent operates slightly higher, while Wall Street U.S. futures remain green at the prospect of success in the labor sector of the American nation.
With regard to raw materials, the black gold has picked up, forming a new side channel up after significant losses after the government announced weekly oil inventories USA At the workshop today, crude oil recorded a daily maximum and minimum 80.93 in 80.49 dollars. Currently, a barrel of West Texas Oil (WTI) traded at 80.90 dollars in the Chamber of Commerce of New York (NYMEX). Since logging, oil 0.4% seen so far.
Levels and key trends:
EUR / USD (euro / dollar): The pair seems to be developing and a five-wave Elliott, left yesterday after new lows. In case you keep making new lows, levels that must be taken are 1.3300 before reaching the minimum, 2009 located at 1.3213. Overcoming this level would leave a free fall where stress levels integers. That is, 1.3200/100/000. Upward, it is noteworthy that the trend is very bearish. However, it also could make a correction to give a price break. In the European morning has been located on 1.3336 after breaking the 20-day Moving Averages in one hour chart. The upward target is positioned above the 1.3400, zone of possible pullback. A strong movement of the euro, could bring up the previous March low at 1.3434 is located.
USD / JPY (dollar / yen): Strong momentum of the dollar against the yen yesterday. The pair did not stop making new intraday highs until he met with the downtrend, which is plotted in weekly chart since June 2007. This level will be key to the future of the crossing, as if to hold back the long-term goal would be the smallest since 2009. Instead, a piercing would provide the same upward path, highlighting the main resistance in the 93.76 yen weekly dollar. In the short term, the pair has taken a break from editing the 23.6 fibo weekly bullish movement. In case you keep looking for new lows, Fibonacci retracements levels are near to be considered. That is, are areas where operators try to send the dollar to cross to break the trend short commentary. Upward, it is noteworthy that if the guideline bassist drilling could bring back a movement exaggerated the dollar for the annual maximum.
GBP / USD (Pound against the dollar): The trend in the pair continues to cut into daily chart, but seems to have found strong support in the neighborhood of 1.4852. It is the fourth time in a month unsuccessfully trying to overcome the level, therefore, is a very critical because their loss would leave a strong free-fall for the dollar. One thing to keep in mind is that levels diminish with the rush, so we must remain vigilant for a possible break new lows for year. The aim if a strong movement of the dollar will look for 1.4754, soil, 2009. Upward, we are in a suitable site for an upward bounce guarantees. The objective should be the 1.5113, lower than in the last 4 hours chart. So far has drilled the downtrend drawn from the maximum of 17 January. Therefore, if consolidated, the next step will break the barrier of 1.5, area where operators seek dollar short positions.
XAU / USD (ounce of gold against the dollar): In 4-hour chart has formed a good support, which is trying to push the yellow metal. The rise may lead the pair to the maximum weekly in the neighborhood of 1108. It is not expected to break the ceiling commented today, leaving a shift in V A low, gold should hold about 1095 for continuing the downward trend yesterday. The minimum drill on Wednesday, leaving the door open to reach the 1180. The movement of metal during the European morning seems very strong, so this could be until 1100 before going down.
Opportunities of the day:
USD / CHF (dollar / Swiss franc): The pair yesterday met with strong resistance in the neighborhood of 1.0733 francs per dollar. Therefore, could find a fix before you continue to seek new highs. At present is in the fibo 23.6 traced from 1.0547 up to 1.0743. If you break it, the following fibos must be taken into account as bullish rebound levels. The drive will find the next significant level of 4-hour chart are 1.08, before reaching highs of March. The Bear, the 61.8 fibo zone coincides with the break in four hours, so its 100% correct loss of motion. In one hour chart, you can see a figure in a “shoulder, head, shoulder” that incites the price for the 1.08. In the daily chart is the last candle as a morning star, which suggests that the bulls are starting to control the Bears undecided.
EUR / JPY (euro against the yen): On the daily chart you can draw a line from the top uniting October 2009 with December 2009, which has again come into play this March. Therefore, if the question of rising euro in search of the monthly ceiling will have to overcome the guideline commentary. For today, on Chart 4 hours, there is good resistance at 123.37, however, before you may struggle with the 200-day moving averages an hour with the 123. In short, you need a lot of upward force due to the large number of existing strengths. A low, make a new intraday low for the pair sent by 122.2. This will be the key point for a day bearish, because if you miss it, try to break the double floor located in the 121.43 weekly.