Dollar pending the NFP

March 5th, 2010 by Benton Pena View Comments »

On the last day of the week, the eyes will be on employment data in the U.S.. After meeting in the last quarter of 2009, the U.S. economy experienced an upturn of 5.9%, traders are awaiting the data from the unemployment rate to confirm the economic growth of the world’s largest economy. Among other things, we also know the German factory orders and the conference by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on U.S. economic situation

So far, it has been released to the Production Prices in UK February. While the monthly rate that industry grew by 0.3% in the year the rally has been 4.1%. As a result, sterling appreciated slightly against the dollar and Euro.

Among other things, the market follows closely the economic and social situation in Greece, after learning that the measures announced by the government caused Hellene no good effect on the Greek population. However, the representatives of the members of the Euro Zone have held the tightening of monetary policy and its commitment to cut the fiscal deficit over the next two years.

In stock level, the Asian markets finished the week higher, with the Nikkei recorded the biggest increase this year, after learning the results of the initial request for U.S. unemployment. In Europe, the old continent selective spread of developments in Asia and traded higher, while Wall Street, the future of American hardwood green numbers recorded so far.

With regard to raw materials, a barrel of West Texas oil surges again, trading at 80.64 dollars in the Chamber of Commerce of New York (NYMEX). Since the beginning of session, the black gold rose 0.5% since the start of session, recording a daily maximum of 88.76 dollars. For the next few hours, if the trend continues, long, operators focus on the ceiling of 81.00, while lower, considering the support is at 80.32 dollars.

Levels and key trends:

EUR / USD (euro / dollar): The dollar managed to do a good pullback on the rupture area yesterday to end losing 1.36. Should the trend continue, we must take into account the minimum located today in the 1.3568 and 1.3552, ground on Thursday. Once passed, the pair lose the 1.35, which seek the minimum annual located at 1.3436. Also, do not forget that these environments (1.3459/36) are areas of high potential upside. But today is a day where you know the employment data and the crossing could make a strong move. Finally, highlight the 1.3424 as a last stand before we see a strong free-fall to the 1.3213, least May. Alternative Scenario: In recent days, he escaped from minimum rush greenback, leaving still a chance for the fibo 50, drawn from maximum to minimum of 2010, located in the 1.40. You’ll need to break and consolidate the 1.37 and later cross the barrier of 1.38.

USD / JPY (dollar / yen): The dollar managed to rebound from the 61.8 fibo, traced from 84.82 until 93.76, leaving a large sail daily chart pattern of rotation. The drive to break the downtrend was conducted in 88,327 chance of leaving the day to be above the 89 yen per dollar. The dollar goal for today will be placed on the 90. This will have to overcome 89.484/376. Also, before the break on 25 February at 89,809, will meet with 89,734. Finally, if the greenback has much force, could reach 90,324, up from 25 February. A low, not being able to 89.484/76 resistance zone, the pair back down to the 89,177, that if you lose the pair slid to 89. A key point, since their loss would be significant, leaving a possibility of finding the minimum of yesterday.

GBP / USD (pound against the dollar): The pound yesterday could not move forward leaving a candle daily pattern of rotation, which today would make the minimum annual search. In one hour chart, it appears as was lost uptrend drawn from the soil monthly. If you lose the 1.50, will meet with the media that has formed this week are 1.4977/40, 1.4888/52. At first it seems the main level of 1.4852 on Monday and Tuesday where they formed a double bottom. His passing will leave the way clear to 1.4754. The Bull, the main strength of this week are 1.5132, rupture area March 1. Once there, the weekly maximum is at the 1.5205. A strong upward move could recover the 1.5296, which would be key for the next few days.

XAU / USD (ounce of gold against the dollar): The price of metal has undergone a minor correction to him $ 1125 level, after this movement has continued its upward trend for the drag created in the last two days, which would give amplitude to break that level range discussed these days in 1040/1045. It must be extremely careful with this asset after breaking a medium which has been tested several times, especially when there have been two impulsive waves break with force. The market makers in terms of level change is rarely return to it, and this movement can give us clues of a trend reversal, however must be confirmed at all levels of failure prior to making any decisions.

Opportunities of the day:

USD / CAD (Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar): The loonie seems to lack some strength for getting to play the minimum of 2010. Today has left a candle in the form of high wave that could lead to an attempted rally in the greenback. The objective is the 1.0444. Although the road will meet with 1.0340/70 would try to bring the pair to at new lows. Nor should we forget the maximum at 1.0332 today. The main bullish rebound zone that has the intersection is located in the 1.0286/71, so if the dollar shows weakness, look for a free fall until 1.0224.

EUR / JPY (euro against the yen): Observing the daily chart has all week in a lateral direction today could find. The Bull, the main resistance is on the threshold of 122. So to overcome this area could leave a strong move higher up the 123 if you do not brake the 122.32/63. This is where the very strong euro drag for at least a correction of strong sales since the beginning of the year. A low, leaving a new intraday low (121) may open the door to even the minimum monthly sales in 119.78. On the road we highlight two interesting media as 120.57 and 120.32, less than yesterday.

GBP / JPY (pound against the yen) is listed on parity at 134.32 now, operating lateralized as traders await the U.S. jobs data Mindful that if the data are worse than expected, the crossing could lose the support of 134.20 intraday, area prior to an attack on the target of 133.82 yen per pound. However, if the data exceed expectations, parity might go in search of 134.29. According to Bollinger Bands, the pair experienced high volatility in the hour, while the RSI and MFI are located in neutral territory. Mindful that the next hour, the Stochastic could provide a turning bullish signal.

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