Dollar Expectant of US CPI

March 18th, 2010 by Benton Pena View Comments »

After the president of the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) Ben Bernanke will defend to the Central Bank as the agency most qualified to be the supervisor of the U.S. financial system, the dollar has advanced against its major positions counterparts. However, the euro also weakened by fears driven environment of severe fiscal crisis experienced by the euro zone and in which, if there is no quick solution could increase economic instability in the old continent. Earlier today, Prime Minister of Greece, George Papandreou, has indicated it will not appeal for economic aid from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and stated that awaits more support from the European Commission.

Among other things, today we have learned that the Swiss industrial production has exceeded expectations, although still in negative numbers, while the trade balance of the Euro zone has been below the estimate. For the next few hours, the focus will be on the Consumer Price Index, initial requests for unemployment, leading indicators and the Fed Manufacturing Survey of Philadelphia in the United States.

In stock level, the main indicators of the Asian region closed for the day in the red, while in Europe, the old continent selective recorded operating losses after the uncertainty surrounding the high fiscal deficit of Greece. On Wall Street, the floor is spread from the U.S. Asian and European sessions.

With regard to raw materials, a barrel of West Texas Oil (WTI) traded at this time to 82.41 dollars after a fabulous rally of black gold in 81.90. Recall from yesterday’s session, crude oil made a pullback of 0.7 cents, after data showed the weekly petroleum inventories in the U.S. have registered a new increase for the fourth consecutive week. For the next few hours, the operators believe that the commodity could weaken to the 82.35 and then rebound to the intraday resistance of 82.65 dollars.

Levels and key trends:

EUR / USD (euro / dollar): the pair traded at 1.3686 at the moment dollars per euro. On the technical side, the price is consolidated with the MM 100 days to overcome that area could make way for an attack target of 1.3703 dollars per euro. On the technical side, the Bollinger bands are tightened, indicating low volatility and further reaction of the pair, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is on neutral ground. In the candle chart than 4 hours, the cloud of Ichimoku confirms the upward trend of the crossing, as traders await an interception between the average fast and slow. Currently, the ADX begins to give signs of initiation of a weak trend. Finally, the Parabolic SAR gives sell signal.

GBP / USD (Pound against the dollar): The cable operates near the pivot point of 1.5302, while increasing the prospects around the weakening of the British economy. In the market, it is estimated that the UK fiscal deficit is equivalent to 12.6% of their GDP data confirmed, could weaken the pound. On the technical side, the crossing could perform an intraday pullback to the 1.5246 support, a level that matches the layout fibo 23.60% of between 1.4872 and 1.5383 dollars per pound. Figure 4 hour candle, the price is nearly 50% short of the last movement of the crossing, while the kumo of Ichimoku confirms the upward trend in the last hours.

USD / JPY (dollar against the yen) after registering a daily minimum in 89.76, the crossing has picked up after forming a bullish hammer. Currently, it takes 90.23 yen to the dollar, reaching the next resistance at 90.38, while lower, considering the support is at 90.06. Currently, the price is flirting with the upper Bollinger band, indicating a possible correction to the middle band (90.11), while Stochastic gives buy signals. In the candle chart than 4 hours, the MFI of 14 periods is neutral ground, while the 50-day GM is above the price and the Bulls are in positive territory, providing input signals long.

XAU / USD (ounce of gold against the dollar)
gold continues throughout the movement started during the European session, trading at this time to $ 1127.93. For the next few hours, the crossing could be strengthened with the 1128, then attempt a double attack on the roof located at $ 1133. A low, considering the support found in 1124, upward rebound potential area that, to overcome, could lead to the precious metal back up to $ 1118. According to the ITC of 20 periods, the pair is overbought in an environment, like Stochastic, while Bollinger Bands indicate high volatility on the hour.

Opportunities of the day:

EUR / CHF (Euro against the franc):
after the data known in Switzerland, the Swiss currency is appreciating against the euro to record highs of 1.4458 to 1 years. Currently, the price is consolidated with the 200-day Moving Average, an area that to overcome it, could clear the way up to 1.4461 francs per euro. However, in the case of making a turn bullish, traders focus on the pivot point of 1449. On the technical side, the price corrected to the middle band, after overcoming the lower Bollinger band, while the RSI could stretch to 30 points in the next hour. Finally, confirming the trend Ichimoku short of the crossing. Also, the MM of 50 days is above the spot and the Bulls are in negative territory, input shorted.

USD / CAD (Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar):
junction records the lowest since October 2009, after trading hours ago at 1.0071 Canadian dollars per U.S. dollar. On the technical side, the crossing is below the pivot point of 1.0114, which would increase the prospects for a pullback to new lows mentioned. According to Bollinger Bands, experience little volatility in the hour, while the stochastics sell signal could provide in the next hour. Figure 4 hour candle, Ichimoku cloud confirms the downtrend of the crossing, while the RSI of 14 is in very clear term oversold. In the case of making a turn upward, the next resistance is at 1.0141 francs per dollar.

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