At the beginning of the week, look like crosses the main listed market higher, after learning that the European Commission confirmed the rescue plan for Greece. However, it is clear that the euro has appreciated significantly against the greenback, currently operating below the altitude at 1.3500. Among other things, today we have learned that consumer confidence in the Euro Zone has recorded two-year highs in March, beating market expectations, renewing optimism about the stability of the economic bloc. The main key of that spike is due to the weakening of the European currency, which benefited the export sector.
It also grants mortgages UK have seen a contraction in February, while the M4 Money stock remained in line with expectations. During the evening session, has highlighted the results of the annualized retail sales in Japan. According to the Bureau of Statistics, retail sales grew by 4.2% in February, 2.4% higher than predicted by the operators.
For the next few hours, the eyes will be on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Germany, while in the U.S., the highlight will be the results of the conference Personal Income and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner. For this week, the market will be waiting for employment data across the ocean. For now, it is estimated that the unemployment rate will remain at 9.7% for the second consecutive month.
In stock level, the main selective in the Asian region closed the day higher, as well as indicators of the old continent, following the successful macro known in Europe. On Wall Street U.S. futures operating in green issues when renewing optimism among operators prior to publication of the NFP.
With regard to raw materials, a barrel of oil recovery in the day 0.8%, to trade at this time to 80.67 dollars in the Chamber of Commerce of New York (NYMEX). For the next few hours, the black gold has prospects for moving above 81.00, that of penetrating zone, it could mean the beginning of a new movement along with the ultimate goal in 81.40, double roof and bassist rebound potential level. A low, support closer to consider is at the 80.35 dollars. In the futures market, contracts with maturity “May 2010″ have increased the operational, trading 15,680 documents so far in today’s meeting. At present, the strike price is at the 80.77 dollars, 0.7% above the previous close.
Finally, the Dollar Index, an indicator that measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of currencies, weakened 0.3% on the day after increasing the demand for risky assets. Moments ago, the DXY operated at 81.30 points, placing the next resistance at 81.62, while the nearest support is at 81.00. If the prospects for continuing the NFP will be positive, the above indicator could make a further pullback in the coming hours.
Levels and key trends:
EUR / USD (euro / dollar): The pair closed the week coming up today to get very close to the $ 1.35 per euro. That is, has started the week above the 61.8 fibo of last week, which may make it look the 1.3570, the highest last week. You’ll need to overcome the barrier of 1.35 along the 200-day Moving Averages in an hour. A low, both the 1.35 and 1.3570 are the points where operators try to put the dollar to try to make new lows. In case of losing the support of 1.3419, will slide in search of the minimum on Friday. On the road you have to highlight the barriers of 1.34 and 1.33. In addition, 15-minute chart, the 1.3350 on Friday was a significant level.
USD / JPY (dollar / yen) last week made a big move upward to break the downtrend in place since June 2007. On Friday endured the support (92,407) more important for closing the candle above the weekly trend. If you continue with the same direction, the first resistance is located in 92.96, the highest last week. If overcome, the pair could help up to the roof of 2010 located in the 93,774. By the way, we must stress the 93,481. A low, said losing the support of 92,407, slip the couple to split the downtrend for the 91,755.
GBP / USD (Pound against the dollar): The trend in the pair continues to cut into daily chart, but seems to have found strong support in the 1.48 barrier. May have formed a double bottom in March, suggesting that the pound will seek a correction. In this case, your objective will be to break the downtrend, traders zone where the dollar will be short. For today, the main target is located the 1.50, because if it exceeds one could see a significant movement. Upward, the ceiling of last week could come into play in this case, if GM exceeds 200 days in one hour. Finally, it is noteworthy Fibonacci retracements drawn from 1.5382 to 1.48. The low barrier of 1.5 can be a good place to begin making new lows. If he achieves a new intraday low, the floor of last week will be the goal.
XAU / USD (ounce of gold against the dollar): The yellow metal rebounded sharply on Friday to $ 1115 per ounce. If continues to set new highs, the objective is located in 1127. Although it might delay the movement until 1133.8. You can see that area is very significant, and drilling would open the door to a new upward wave. In graph 4 hours, at this moment trying to overcome the MM 200 days, that if this fails, you can open a new movement until 1095. Along the way, today we highlight the minimum and the barrier of 1100.
Opportunities of the day:
EUR / GBP (Euro against the pound): The couple is discussing the barrier of 0.9 pounds per euro. In case of losing 0.8989, 0.8957 will slide up to. A strong movement of sterling, look for the area of 0.89, where operators of the euro, like last week, will try to turn to price. Upward, one on the 0.90, the first step for a day will be bullish stand on the 0902. The next goal is neither more nor less than the maximum at 0.9043 last week. It would be interesting to break this level as it would leave a pattern to aim to the roof of March.
EUR / JPY (euro against the yen): When the pair is looking up the 38.2 fibo which is located in the 125.21 yen per euro. 124.54 Perforation of the price can lead to contact the guideline is very steep, from which seek contact with the media on the fibo 23.6 in the 124.18. The strength of the drive could take even up to 123.65, although there is strong support in training. Upward, there is significant resistance at 125.04, the passing of which would give great strength to the upside momentum and can reach up to 125.28. A consolidation points to the 126.39 level, an area of very strong resistance.