Fiscal risks in Europe continue to weaken the euro and sterling. On one hand, Greece has failed so far the European Commission approval on its plan to cut its huge deficit, whereas in the UK, increasing the prospects of a new recession, if the British economy does not cut its current debt estimated at 12.6% of GDP. As a result, the euro fell to the lowest in two weeks at 1.3503 against the dollar, while cable flirts with double-deck located at 1.4939 dollars per pound. Among other things, the dollar rallied against major majors, after parliament passed major healthcare reform in history, in what was allocated 960,000 million over 10 years to provide health coverage to 95% of the U.S. population.
For the next few hours, the eyes will be on the press conferences of the presidents of the Bank of England (BoE) and European Central Bank (ECB), Mervyn King and Jean Claude Trichet, while across the ocean, the market will be waiting to address the Secretary of U.S. Treasury, Timothy Geithner, at the American Enterprise Institute, on financial reform.
Furthermore, we must emphasize once again that U.S. has expressed its disagreement on the weakening of the yuan. On Thursday, Geithner said that China will eventually need to implement more flexible measures in its monetary policy, because the current levy, set by the Bank of China since 2008, not only detrimental to China, but also its main trading partners. According to U.S. figures, U.S. exporters estimate that the yuan has depreciated 40% against the dollar, giving its products an edge in world markets.
In stock level, the main indicators of the Asian region, as well as the European selective record red ink, after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that major world economies are experiencing “acute” current challenges to cut debts prosecutors. On Wall Street U.S. futures predict a start into the day with losses.
With regard to raw materials, a barrel of West Texas Oil (WTI) traded at this time to 79.83 dollars in the Chamber of Commerce of New York (NYMEX). Since the beginning of session, the black gold is depreciated 1.0%, after increasing demand of greenback as the value of refuge. On the technical side, the crossing would continue the movement to support short 79.72, then pick up and try to go for 23.6% the last bearish movement. Upward, the next resistance is at 80.10 dollars. Finally, according to the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is crude on neutral ground.
Levels and key trends:
EUR / USD (euro / dollar): The pair continues to consolidate within the range between the annual minimum and $ 1.38 per euro. However, daily chart could be giving the commencement of a new wave bass. If so, would be the fifth according to Elliot, and break the 1.3424 support will be located at the point that precipitated the new bassist leg. The first objective must be seen at least May 1.3213. On the other hand, making a final push downward projection, the price would reach levels of March 2009, coinciding zone where upward rally began in 2009, the currency of the old continent. An alternative scenario for this week is that the pair remains in the range of consolidation, seeking a larger correction. Highlight the support and resistance as 1.35/6/7/8 where to drill the 1.38, leaving the possibility of seeking fibo 50 that coincides with 1.40. Finally, weekly chart has formed a pattern of envelope-shaped candles bassist.
USD / JPY (dollar / yen): Observing the 4 hour chart looks like the pair has spent almost all of March in a range, which could delineate between 90.7 and 90. Therefore, the objective for today is to break either end, giving direction to the crossing. A low, will slide the monthly minimum located in the surroundings of the 61.8 fibo. The Bull, will go towards the barrier of 92, less than last, finding his main resistance in the 91 yen per dollar. Of note is the support in the 90,345 trained as a zone of momentum. Finally, should not venture beyond the range delimited, we must try not to get into the middle of the ranks and look for extremes. In addition to the mentioned, in daily chart highlights the 200-day moving average located at 90.97, which could make a strong resistance work.
GBP / USD (pound against the dollar): The pound last week tried unsuccessfully to turn around, leaving now able to seek new annual lows. At this time is below the barrier of 1.50, which could precipitate the pair to the ground located on March 1.4783. However, by the way we should note the potential zone of 1.4888/52 bullish rebound. A new week, breaking the minimum bassist May at 1.4754, stop-ahead to the gates of $ 1.45 per pound. The Bull, the area commented on the rebound will be essential to recover back to 1.50. The goal is set to exceed the maximum monthly, leaving an upward pattern for next week. Do not forget 1.5258, Fig bassist shoulder that formed last week, and 4-hour chart of 1.5038, lower than last.
XAU / USD (ounce of gold against the dollar): Gold has found good support at 1,103.7, just before the psychological level of $ 1100 per ounce. Should be an up day, will have to exceed 1109. If successful would have room to auparse until 1119. However, we must not forget the 1116 for the road. A low, losing the 1100, could bring a sharp correction to the 1089, support in late February. In this case, leaving a very bearish pattern for the coming days, targeting the 1063.
Opportunities of the day:
EUR / JPY (euro against the yen): Right now sits on the 122.35, which coincides with the 61.8 fibo of the momentum from the minimum to the maximum of 2009. It is a perfect match which makes it a support to consider. In this case, could go to find new maximum, although it requires overcoming 122.67, to take up the 123.14 target. However, it could delay the move until 123.36. An alternative scenario is the drilling of 122.20, which could bring the price up to 121.88/65.
EUR / GBP (Euro against the pound): It is a crossing that is giving many routes in recent days, which highlights the 200-day moving averages on daily chart of an hour, who are acting in support and resistance respectively. These are the goals to beat. Upwards in one hour chart, exceed 0.9043, would boost up to 0906, before treating the area for the 0.91. For such environments, operators seek a pound short positions. A low, before reaching 0.90, the minimum should be emphasized today that the two will try to send the price for moving averages discussed. If you are an up day for sterling, it could find the minimum on Friday, finding support at 0.8989 / 4.